Much improved collection of data on disability and on the needs of caregivers is required. Former Socialist economies of Europe will have static or declining numbers of dependent people, but will have large increases in the dependency ratio (up to 13%).ĬONCLUSION: Many countries will be greatly affected by the increasing number of dependent people and will need to identify the human and financial resources to support them. Established market economies, especially Europe and Japan, will experience modest increases in the prevalence of dependency (30%), and in the dependency ratio (up to 10%). The dependency ratio will increase more in China (14%) and India (12%) than in other areas with large prevalence increases. These increases will occur in the context of generally increasing populations, and dependency ratios will increase modestly to about 10%. Large increases in prevalence are predicted in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, Asia and Latin America of up to 5-fold or 6-fold in some cases. Population projections were used to forecast changes over the next 50 years.įINDINGS: The greatest burden of dependency currently falls in sub-Saharan Africa, where the "dependency ratio" (ratio of dependent people to the population of working age) is about 10%, compared with 7-8% elsewhere. METHODS: Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study were used to calculate the prevalence of severe levels of disability, and consequently, to estimate dependency. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the number of people worldwide requiring daily assistance from another person in carrying out health, domestic or personal tasks. IIIDirector, Home-based and Long-term Care, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland NG7 2UH, England (email: Environmental Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, England IHealth Care of the Elderly, B Floor South Block, Queen's Medical Centre, Nottingham. Harwood I, 1 Avan Aihie Sayer II Miriam Hirschfeld III Prevalencia mundial actual y futura de la dependencia, relación con la población total y razones de dependencia Prévalence actuelle et future de la dépendance dans le monde, relation avec l'ensemble de la population et rapports de dépendance Current and future worldwide prevalence of dependency, its relationship to total population, and dependency ratios
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